China, India sign deal aimed at soothing Himalayan tension

China and India signed a deal on Wednesday aimed at soothing tension on their contested border, as the two nuclear-armed giants try to break a decades-old stalemate on overlapping claims to long remote stretches of the Himalayas.
The agreement was signed in Beijing's Great Hall of the People following a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
China, a close ally of India's long-time foe, Pakistan, lays claim to more than 90,000 sq km (35,000 sq miles) disputed by New Delhi in the eastern sector of the Himalayas. India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometers (14,600 square miles) of its territory on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west.
The two countries fought a brief border war in 1962 and since then ties have been mired in distrust, with a series of alleged violations by Chinese military patrols earlier this year.
"I am sure it will help to maintain peace, tranquility and stability in our border areas," China's Li told reporters following talks with Singh.
The border defense cooperation agreement is built on existing confidence-building measures and is designed to ensure that patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, as the unsettled border is called, does not escalate into an unintended skirmish, an Indian official said last week.
Singh said the agreement "will add to the existing instruments to ensure peace, stability and predictability on our borders".
Under the new deal, the two sides will give notice of patrols along the ill-defined border to ensure that patrols do not "tail" each other to reduce the chance of confrontation and will exercise "maximum self-restraint" should the two sides come face to face in areas where the line of control is unclear.
The two armies, strung out along the 4,000-km (2,500-mile) border from the high-altitude Ladakh plateau in the west to the forests of Arunachal Pradesh in the east, have also agreed to look at setting up a hotline between top-ranking officers in addition to existing brigade-level contacts.
The border defense cooperation pact is a small step forward in a complicated relationship marked by booming economic ties and growing distrust.
In May, armies from the two countries ended a three-week standoff in the western Himalayas after Chinese troops set up a camp at least 10 km (six miles) inside territory claimed by India, triggering a public outcry and calls that India should stand up to its powerful neighbor.
China denied that troops had crossed into Indian territory.
A Chinese airline earlier this month blocked two Indian archers from disputed Arunachal Pradesh from travelling to China, souring the mood in India ahead of Singh's visit.
But Li sought to play down the differences.
"China and India are two old civilizations," he said. "Our two peoples have the wisdom and our two governments have the ability to manage our differences along the border so that it won't affect the overall interests of our bilateral relations."

China, India sign deal aimed at soothing Himalayan tension

China and India signed a deal on Wednesday aimed at soothing tension on their contested border, as the two nuclear-armed giants try to break a decades-old stalemate on overlapping claims to long remote stretches of the Himalayas.
The agreement was signed in Beijing's Great Hall of the People following a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
China, a close ally of India's long-time foe, Pakistan, lays claim to more than 90,000 sq km (35,000 sq miles) disputed by New Delhi in the eastern sector of the Himalayas. India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometers (14,600 square miles) of its territory on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west.
The two countries fought a brief border war in 1962 and since then ties have been mired in distrust, with a series of alleged violations by Chinese military patrols earlier this year.
"I am sure it will help to maintain peace, tranquility and stability in our border areas," China's Li told reporters following talks with Singh.
The border defense cooperation agreement is built on existing confidence-building measures and is designed to ensure that patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, as the unsettled border is called, does not escalate into an unintended skirmish, an Indian official said last week.
Singh said the agreement "will add to the existing instruments to ensure peace, stability and predictability on our borders".
Under the new deal, the two sides will give notice of patrols along the ill-defined border to ensure that patrols do not "tail" each other to reduce the chance of confrontation and will exercise "maximum self-restraint" should the two sides come face to face in areas where the line of control is unclear.
The two armies, strung out along the 4,000-km (2,500-mile) border from the high-altitude Ladakh plateau in the west to the forests of Arunachal Pradesh in the east, have also agreed to look at setting up a hotline between top-ranking officers in addition to existing brigade-level contacts.
The border defense cooperation pact is a small step forward in a complicated relationship marked by booming economic ties and growing distrust.
In May, armies from the two countries ended a three-week standoff in the western Himalayas after Chinese troops set up a camp at least 10 km (six miles) inside territory claimed by India, triggering a public outcry and calls that India should stand up to its powerful neighbor.
China denied that troops had crossed into Indian territory.
A Chinese airline earlier this month blocked two Indian archers from disputed Arunachal Pradesh from travelling to China, souring the mood in India ahead of Singh's visit.
But Li sought to play down the differences.
"China and India are two old civilizations," he said. "Our two peoples have the wisdom and our two governments have the ability to manage our differences along the border so that it won't affect the overall interests of our bilateral relations."

China, India sign deal aimed at soothing Himalayan tension

China and India signed a deal on Wednesday aimed at soothing tension on their contested border, as the two nuclear-armed giants try to break a decades-old stalemate on overlapping claims to long remote stretches of the Himalayas.
The agreement was signed in Beijing's Great Hall of the People following a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
China, a close ally of India's long-time foe, Pakistan, lays claim to more than 90,000 sq km (35,000 sq miles) disputed by New Delhi in the eastern sector of the Himalayas. India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometers (14,600 square miles) of its territory on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west.
The two countries fought a brief border war in 1962 and since then ties have been mired in distrust, with a series of alleged violations by Chinese military patrols earlier this year.
"I am sure it will help to maintain peace, tranquility and stability in our border areas," China's Li told reporters following talks with Singh.
The border defense cooperation agreement is built on existing confidence-building measures and is designed to ensure that patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, as the unsettled border is called, does not escalate into an unintended skirmish, an Indian official said last week.
Singh said the agreement "will add to the existing instruments to ensure peace, stability and predictability on our borders".
Under the new deal, the two sides will give notice of patrols along the ill-defined border to ensure that patrols do not "tail" each other to reduce the chance of confrontation and will exercise "maximum self-restraint" should the two sides come face to face in areas where the line of control is unclear.
The two armies, strung out along the 4,000-km (2,500-mile) border from the high-altitude Ladakh plateau in the west to the forests of Arunachal Pradesh in the east, have also agreed to look at setting up a hotline between top-ranking officers in addition to existing brigade-level contacts.
The border defense cooperation pact is a small step forward in a complicated relationship marked by booming economic ties and growing distrust.
In May, armies from the two countries ended a three-week standoff in the western Himalayas after Chinese troops set up a camp at least 10 km (six miles) inside territory claimed by India, triggering a public outcry and calls that India should stand up to its powerful neighbor.
China denied that troops had crossed into Indian territory.
A Chinese airline earlier this month blocked two Indian archers from disputed Arunachal Pradesh from travelling to China, souring the mood in India ahead of Singh's visit.
But Li sought to play down the differences.
"China and India are two old civilizations," he said. "Our two peoples have the wisdom and our two governments have the ability to manage our differences along the border so that it won't affect the overall interests of our bilateral relations."

Saudi Arabia, gulf countries celebrating Eid-ul-Azha today

RIYADH/DUBAI: Saudi Arabia and gulf countries are celebrating Eid-ul-Azha today (Tuesday).

The UAE's close proximity to the Mecca, in Saudi Arabia, makes the Eid all the more exciting in the country. It is during the Eid that the Muslims complete their Haj pilgrimage.

Dubai expects 65 million pilgrims from around the world this year. It will be a transit point before they travel to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, the closest city to the Mecca.

During the Eid holidays, amusement parks such as Dubai's Global Village or the car-leisure complex Ferrari World in Abu Dhabi remain open for longer duration, while Dubai's major shopping malls will remain open round the clock.

The Dubai government is offering free parking Oct 13-18, and the Dubai Metro will run till 3 a.m.

All UAE government employees have been given a week's holiday, starting Sunday.

UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan wished good health and happiness to people on the occasion of Eid-ul-Azha

Uncertain path to 2014

 

Uncertain path to 2014

For some time it seemed that Afghanistan had slipped from Washington’s top priorities as the Obama administration became preoccupied by political gridlock at home, as well as fast moving developments in the Middle East and terrorist threats in Africa. But Secretary of State John Kerry’s weekend trip to Kabul signalled that the US still had important business to transact in Afghanistan. The visit was impelled by urgency to secure a security deal that would allow for a post-2014 US military presence in that country.

After a year of negotiations between Washington and Kabul, the continuing stalemate on a bilateral security agreement (BSA) made the US deadline of October to conclude the deal appear increasingly elusive. In recent months both countries also began to engage in a public game of brinkmanship. Each side threatened to walk away from talks if the other didn't yield on areas of disagreement.

As President Hamid Karzai’s public statements became more strident, leaks in the American media suggested that if no agreement were reached, the US would exercise the ‘zero option’ of complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. Last week President Barack Obama himself declared that without a BSA he would have to order a complete troop pullout.

Against this backdrop, Secretary Kerry’s unannounced visit to Kabul ended in agreement on most of the terms for a BSA. But a key sticking point remained unresolved: legal immunity for American forces from prosecution in Afghanistan. This meant that despite progress achieved in two days of lengthy talks no final accord emerged.

President Karzai announced that the immunity issue would be decided by a Loya Jirga, which he planned to convene next month. It will then be placed before Parliament. And Kerry made it clear that “If the issue of jurisdiction cannot be resolved, then there cannot be a bilateral security agreement.” In another indication that other matters remained to be finalised, Karzai said there were several “small issues” and “technical points” he had yet to review.

This left an air of uncertainty – and many unanswered questions. When would Karzai, who steps down in six months, call the Loya Jirga? He has already postponed this twice. Would the Jirga endorse the deal, especially in the middle of the country’s election season? Registration of presidential candidates ended earlier this month for elections due in April 2014. With the BSA still not signed, could it end up as an election issue? If Kerry’s trip was timed to avert this possibility it is unclear how any more delay – over remaining hurdles – will play into campaign politics and shape the outcome.

Although the exact terms of what has been described as a ‘partial deal’ have yet to be announced, an important and consequential question is how the BSA will affect future efforts to revive Afghan peace talks, given that the Taliban’s main demand is withdrawal of all foreign forces from their country. In his Eid message, Mullah Omar rejected the proposed agreement, saying that Afghans would never accept a “document of surrender” rubberstamped by a “fake” Loya Jirga.

There is also no regional consensus on a long-term US military presence. Most regional states, especially Iran, Russia and China, have misgivings even if there are also concerns in the region about a possible security vacuum after 2014. These regional concerns have yet to be addressed much less resolved, because there is no final security document or details for neighbouring countries to take firm positions on. Delay on this count will shrink the space for much needed regional diplomacy.

As no agreement has been concluded this leaves Karzai with room to manoeuvre and raises another possibility. What if President Karzai plays the BSA down to the wire to bargain for postponement of elections? However improbable, the possibility cannot be ruled out, especially as senior Afghan officials have privately been musing over a postponement, ostensibly by a “few months”, which they claim is constitutionally permitted.

Any postponement will however be unacceptable to all the Afghan opposition groups, provoke internal discord, and also jeapordise Nato’s exit strategy. American officials say Washington would oppose any postponement. They also argue that after Kerry’s visit, Karzai cannot long drag out the BSA issue by prevaricating on the Loya Jirga or manipulating it. But it is yet to be seen how the US will resolve the immunity issue without a trade off, if Karzai uses delaying tactics. What will that trade off be?

And what would be the implications, especially for Afghan reconciliation prospects, if all energies continue to be consumed by efforts to conclude the BSA, to the virtual exclusion of addressing other aspects of the transitions ahead? Uncertainty has already deepened about the political, economic and security transitions because the most important prerequisite for their achievement is nowhere in sight – peace talks for a political settlement to end the war.

Valuable time has been lost to prolonged wrangling between Washington and Kabul on the BSA. This has also exacted a heavy price – delaying if not derailing peace efforts. It was in June that Karzai suspended talks on the BSA in protest against the US for orchestrating the opening of a Taliban office in Qatar. A promising start to a possible peace process was stopped dead in its tracks by Karzai’s calculation that Washington needed a BSA more than anything else. He linked the two issues and insisted that unless he was at the centre of any dialogue with the Taliban he would not let it proceed.

Since June, there have been no serious efforts to revive Doha, even though Taliban representatives have not left Qatar and their spokesman have reiterated willingness to pick up the threads from where they were left off.

Islamabad has repeatedly urged Washington not to abandon the Doha option. The US balked at Pakistan’s proposal, offered a few months ago, for “pre-talks” to resolve misunderstandings that led to the diplomatic debacle at Doha. But as securing the BSA became the overwhelming American priority, the peace process was pushed to the back burner. That is where it remains today. With the security deal taking precedence, the US has not wanted to risk annoying Karzai by taking any initiative to resuscitate the Doha process.

Meanwhile the modest improvement in Pakistan-Afghan relations after Karzai’s August visit to Islamabad has done little to move the reconciliation process forward. Given the Taliban’s refusal to talk to the Karzai regime, Pakistan’s release of a senior Taliban leader, Abdul Ghani Baradar, on Kabul’s request, is unlikely to change that dynamic. The indications are that any meaningful move towards political reconciliation may have to wait for the post-Karzai era.

If the presidential election is held on time then another question is whether this process itself can produce political engagement with the Taliban as various contenders seek to cut deals and build alliances. More importantly, can the Taliban be persuaded not to disrupt the election, in the absence of any peace process? So far Taliban representatives have rejected the election. Mullah Omar reiterated this in his Eid message and urged people not to participate in what he dubbed a “drama”. It is conceivable that if peace talks had taken off in June some kind of accommodation may have emerged to ensure the elections went off peacefully.

With none of this resolved, doubts have intensified about a smooth and orderly path to 2014 and beyond. Muddle through seems to mark the US-led coalition’s approach to the looming transitions. What throws all three milestones into uncertainty is the lack of serious efforts towards a negotiated political settlement to put an end to fighting ahead of 2014. This was supposed to serve as the foundation for a peaceful transition in 2014 and to help assure the country’s post-2014 stability.

With time running out for progress on this count, the danger looms of turmoil and instability in post-2014 Afghanistan. No one may want that outcome, least of all Pakistan, but Islamabad will have no choice but to prepare itself to deal with the fallout.